Storm

This article was originally published as 'Storm' in http://www.themorningbulletin.com.au/ on 10th August 2013. Image borrowed from www.couriermail.com.au

The dumbing down of education and the reliance on one's own feelings as a reasonable basis for decision making are topics previously addressed in the column.

It seems to me that we have moved from a situation where few were relatively tertiary educated, but educated to a high standard, to one where a shallower style of tertiary education is available to most everyone. And we have moved from a system of highly organised (definitely flawed and perhaps over-bearing) religion as a source of self-reflection to one where daring to question the crowd is deemed heretical. The popular default now is a reliance on feelings and bureaucracy.

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Wacademia

This article was originally published as 'Wacademia' in The Morning Bulletin in July 2012

Flinders prided itself on was an interdisciplinary approach to learning streams. As part of my economics degree I studied statistics, demographics, politics, history and even had the opportunity to enrol in “death dying and bereavement” and other subjects in the medical school. More experienced, it’s almost uncomfortable to realise that I only now understand what they gave me back then.

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Rundown on CIPL

This article was originally published as 'Rundown on CIPL' in http://www.themorningbulletin.com.au/ on 21 July 2012.

Of the $150 million or so our business looks after, about $90 million originates from Central Queensland. That’s a lot of money, but think about it this way – that’s only money entrusted to our firm - one of probably 30 financial services firms in the area.

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The Grand

This article was originally published as 'The Grand' in http://www.themorningbulletin.com.au/ on 16 June 2012.

Passers-by will notice that the Grand Hotel and the house next to it has been demolished, with only Legacy house still standing. The combined land parcel comprises more than 1,700 square metres of prime commercial land, snugly situated between City Centre Plaza, The Edge and the new Empire apartment hotel (to be started in January).

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Assessing the value

This article was originally published as 'Assessment of Value' in The Morning Bulletinon 21 April 2012.

It strikes me as odd that people will happily fork out $38 for a carton of beer every week, but will balk at spending the same amount on upgrading their car. Or they will happily buy a can of coke each week, but persevere with a clapped out washing machine.

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Check your face

This article was first published inThe Northern Daily Leader under the heading, 'Check your face' on the 31st of March 2012.

Financial advisers don’t follow a ‘face code’ (I hope!) – exclusivity should not be a barrier to receiving financial advice. Some advisers may charge more than others, but you shouldn’t be discriminated against based on the balance of your bank account. This is related to a question I am often asked: how much money do you need to have before you see a financial adviser? Many people think that there’s no use getting financial advice unless they have a spare couple hundred thousand dollars lying around. The truth is that you don’t need to have money to justify seeking out financial advice; you just need to be interested in making the most of your financial situation.

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Ports

This article was originally published as 'Port' in http://www.themorningbulletin.com.au/ on 24 March 2012.Image borrowed from http://www.queensland-australia.com/gladstone-image-tour.html

If the benefits to the region from mining and LNG construction start to wane, what will drive growth? It won’t be tourism, education or exports, the high $A will see to that, and retail will be hit as the high income tradies and operators drift away. How will you feel when your house price drops by 30 per cent, and your kids can’t find jobs.

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Just Google It

This article was first published inThe Northern Daily Leader under the heading, 'Just Google It' on the 17th of March 2012.

How great is the internet? Want to know how many ping pong balls fit in a jumbo? Just google it (around 28 million). Want to know Tony Abbott’s date of birth? Just google it (4 November 1957). Want to know how much the world’s most expensive watch costs? Just google it ($4.7 million). Want to know where the….ok you probably get it by now. It’s almost hard to imagine life without access to all of this amazing information. Though of course much of what you find on the internet is of dubious quality – have a look for when the world will end and you’ll see what I mean (21st of December apparently, so go easy on the Christmas presents this year).

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Productivity

This article was originally published as 'Productivity' in The Morning Bulletinon 03 March 2012.

Economists have not been good at explaining productivity, and consequently most people think it involves closing factories and cutting heads. That can happen, but more powerful sources of productivity improvements do exist. While employing better machinery and other equipment is obvious, it is the legion of small things that interests me most.

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The Music Did It

This article was first published inThe Northern Daily Leader under the heading, 'The Music Did It' on the 03rd of March 2012.

It’s remarkable how sights, sounds and smells can jog our memories, instantly reminding us of places or events long past. Music in particular is very effective at transporting you back to a certain time or place. When I hear Ennio Morricone’s classic theme song from The Good, the Bad and the Ugly, it immediately takes me back to the late 70’s, sitting on the shagpile rug on the lounge floor while my parents listened to the soundtrack on their vinyl record player, eating Swedish meatballs and a cheese fondue. On the other hand, a power love ballad from Whitney Houston reminds me of teenage parties where we hung out with our acid wash jeans, leather jackets and big hair, furtively sneaking sips from a can of beer we’d stolen from Dad’s fridge.

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The 'toilet tip'

This article was first published inThe Northern Daily Leader under the heading, 'The Toilet Tip' on the 18th of February 2012.

People often lump gambling and the stock market together, believing that the risks or chances of success in both are of equal magnitude. In fact researchers have found that there is a difference: gambling in casinos or on pokies means you will only ever lose in the long run, due to the nature of the odds against you. The stock market however, is more like the racetrack, where the more informed investor (or punter) can succeed at the expense of less well informed players. The message is that successful investing, like picking winners at the track, means talking to somebody who knows what they’re doing. It’s just that good investment advisers are hopefully easier to find than hanging around the toilets at the racetrack.

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Shopping is not a movie

This article was first published in The Northern Daily Leader under the title 'Shopping is not a movie' on 04 February 2012.

It struck me then that choosing a movie was not unlike investing in the stock market – I had a choice between very different alternatives, just as you do when you select any investment. One of the choices, The Hangover, was clearly high-risk (my wife was not going to be happy when I showed her my selection) but also high-reward (I was going to be much happier watching it than the movie about shopping). Sex in the City however, was the complete opposite – low-risk (my wife was going to be thrilled with my choice) but also low-reward (I would have to try and keep awake for two hours watching Carrie and her friends go shopping and talk about their feelings).

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Fleeting 1st lesson in finance

This article was first published inThe Northern Daily Leader under the heading, 'A kiss from Julia Roberts' on the 26th of November 2011.

Starting early is important not only in education, but also in saving and investing. The earlier you start saving up for something, be it a new car, a nice pair of shoes or your retirement, the more chance you have of reaching your goal. Now we all already know this, so why is it so hard to do? It’s simply a trade-off between immediate and delayed consumption. We all want it now! Having to wait a week, six months or forty years before we get to spend our savings is no good, we want it all now.

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In a 'roundabout' way

This article was first published inThe Northern Daily Leader under the heading, 'The Robot Says Stop' published on 10 December 2011.

I was thinking about the different names for traffic lights as I was stuck on red at Tamworth’s newest set of traffic lights (at the intersection of Bridge Street and Belmore Street). As I waited for green, I wondered why we had swapped a perfectly good roundabout for a set of traffic lights.

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A boy and his toys

This article was first published inThe Northern Daily Leader under the heading, 'Ken and Barbie won't make you rich'?

It wasn’t until many years later that I finally figured out what I really should have been buying with my fifty pounds – shares in BHP Billiton. If I had the foresight to spend my fifty pounds on BHP shares each year, I would now be sitting on a tidy investment worth just over $23,000. A little deposit perhaps towards the fast red sports car that somebody wants for their fortieth birthday. I guess the toys never change, they just get bigger and more expensive.

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Music 'Embrace the change'

This article was originally published as 'Music Industry is embracing the change like never before' in The Morning Bulletin on 08th October, 2011.

Queensland is known for its resource and tourism industries, but if you were invited to attend conferences on financial planning and music, would you think of Brisbane as a natural location? And would you expect the financial or the musical people to have a better grip on their industry? Which would you think of as the most professional?

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Who's This Jason Guy?

This article was first published inThe Northern Daily Leader under the heading, 'Who's this Jason guy'?

Given my regular message that most investing behaviour is driven by our cognitive and emotional states, it probably wouldn’t surprise you to learn that the same failure to act sooner rather than later is also prevalent in how we manage our investments. Researchers have given it the fancy name of the ‘disposition effect’, but really all it means is that when it comes to share investing we tend to hold on to our losers and sell our winners. It’s not so much the selling of the winners which is a problem (as they say, nobody ever went broke taking a profit), it’s holding on to dud investments for far too long, when they should have been sold immediately when things started to go downhill.

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Jackpot

This article was first published inThe Northern Daily Leader under the heading, 'Hi Mum I've won the lottery' on the 15th of October 2011.

Unfortunately, your real chances of winning the lottery are slim – winning Powerball is a 1 in 55 million long shot. However your odds of having to deal with a windfall of a different sort are quite high – every one of us has money in superannuation and many of us will need to decide what to do with our lifetime savings when we retire. While not quite on the same scale as a lottery win, you may still be required to decide what to do with hundreds of thousands of dollars.

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The Death Drop

This article was first published inThe Northern Daily Leader under the heading, 'Jumping off a cliff can hurt' on the 1st of October 2011.

The wild gyrations we’ve been seeing on global stock markets are largely because there is no certainty that Germany and France will make the right decision, or even if saving Greece is the right decision. With any luck the outcome is more positive than when I paid my US$90 to experience the ‘death drop’ a little over a decade ago. On that occasion I blacked out on the way down and nearly threw my back out – here’s hoping Greece avoids the same fate.

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What sort of car are you?

This article was first published inThe Northern Daily Leader under the heading, 'What sort of car are you'?

Early last year my wife and I experienced two momentous occasions: we found out we were having a baby and we had to buy a new car. Clearly the latter was brought about by the former, for as much as I argued otherwise, it was apparent that fitting a baby capsule to the ute’s passenger seat was not an option.

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Theories

This article was originally published as ‘Theories’ in The Morning Bulletin in September 2011.

The Chinese do know what they are doing. Once fragmented, four or five companies now control much of the commodity market, making prices much less volatile. High prices are not evoking the supply response of times past, and therefore prices are remaining “stronger for longer”. Such an outcome is consistent with microeconomic theory - big consumers will want to bypass the problem by owning the resources directly. Not keen on economics? Watch the movie “Dune”.

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Don't just do something, sit there

This article was first published inThe Northern Daily Leaderunder the heading, don't just do something, sit there.

Unsurprisingly, these are the sort of questions that scientists love to answer, and a 2007 study by a group of Israeli researchers found that when facing a penalty kick, goalkeepers have an ‘action bias’ – which means that they tend to dive left or right more frequently than was useful. The study showed that goalkeepers went left or the right 94% of the time – meaning they stay in the middle for only 6% of the kicks they faced. However, the penalty shot went straight at the middle of the goal 29% of the time, so it turns out that goalkeepers could increase their chances of saving the penalty kick simply by doing nothing.

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Shock Loss or Shocking Winners

This article was first published in The Northern Daily Leader under the title 'Take That' on 06 August 2011.

Psychologists found that most of us suffer from ‘confirmation bias’, which means that we tend to favour information that confirms our views, regardless of whether the information is true or not. Another discovery is the ‘house-money’ effect, which found that people tend to gamble more recklessly with money from a windfall (such as a profitable investment or a winning scratchie). It’s no surprise why casinos are happy to give you free chips when you join their loyalty club.

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Don't feel compelled to do things that make you uncomfortable

This article was first published in The Northern Daily Leader under the title 'Hello Brian' on 23 July 2011.

The ‘Do Not Call Register’ is a great idea – apparently signing up to the register means you won’t be troubled by pesky telemarketers, who have a knack for knowing when you have just sat down for dinner. Last week, while my wife and I were preoccupied with convincing our six month old son Jack, that liquidised pumpkin is a tasty food source, we were interrupted by a telephone call from ‘Brian’. In hindsight we should have just ignored the call, but we had been expecting a call from a family member.

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Bubbles in Paris

This article was first published in The Northern Daily Leader under the title 'Bubbles in Paris' on 09 July 2011.

Too often we see ordinary Australians being duped by the modern-day equivalent of John Law and his exciting yet ultimately worthless investment opportunity. So whenever a ‘John Law’ comes your way, be a sceptic first and a believer second. The Mississippi Company wasn’t the first speculative bubble to collapse, and it certainly won’t be the last.

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Rockhampton It's The Vibe

This article was first published in The Morning Bulletin Titled (The Show) dated 11 June 2011.

The show has moved with the times, but not so our region. These initiatives were all driven by individuals who want to achieve something. None relied on Government, and consequently avoided the squabbling and do-nothing mentality that we are saddled with. After more than 10 years back here, the problem is clear. There is simply too much politics – bring back Brophy.

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Boring Budget

This article was first publihed in The Morning Bulletin dated 21st May 2011. Federal Budget Undoes Our Buffer Against GST

Is the recent Commonwealth budget boring? Perhaps, but it is important because of what it has failed to do. It is an embarrassment to the party that through Whitlam, dragged Australia kicking and screaming into the 20th Century, and into a liberal financial mainstream through Hawke and Keating. In fact, it seems to sow the seeds of undoing much of the great work that has led to Australia’s ability to withstand the GFC, and the nation’s current prosperity.

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A cut above

This article was originally published in The Morning Bulletin in March 2011. Titled What can a financial planner do?

The ongoing nature of financial advising provides the opportunity for continuous financial improvement, whether through investment or through structural means. Like a GP, personal financial professionals will call in expert help when needed, but the primary relationship will be with the generalist.

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The culture of fear

This article was first published in The Morning Bulletin Titled (The culture of fear) dated 04 March 2011.

Being gloomy has become fashionable. Once the fun police were the precious domain of the movie theatre (a special hello to Rockhampton Twin Cinema’s, Mr. Styles), but now they are everywhere. Driven by painful political correct ideology, they seek to impose their totalitarian views on the rest of us. Most of us already understand the need to respect each other, but the PC crowd employ their tools to subvert intelligent debate and stifle development.

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Fly In Fly Out

This article was first published in The Morning Bulletin under the heading Income Returns dated 18 September 2010.

The future growth in our region is not in mining or in oil and gas per se, but in servicing and making investments in those growth industries. This is Rockhampton’s history. There are many reasons to choose Central Queensland as home, but unless the thinking changes, notwithstanding the resources boom, our communities will fall further and further behind. In a fly-in, fly-out environment, much better commuter transport links between employee residences and the “coal face” are key to Rockhampton and the Capricorn Coast becoming a viable alternative to Brisbane for mining workers.

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Will She Be Right Mate?

This article was first published in The Morning Bulletin under the heading Will she be right mate? dated 30 October 2010.

Underinsurance can have a huge impact on the lifestyle your family chooses to follow. The family income can often halve if families lose the main breadwinner and an unexpected event can affect your family’s way of living including making mortgage repayments, the cost of running a car, holidays and other expenses. While your superannuation fund may provide a basic level of cover – quite often it is not enough.

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What Happens Next

This article was first published in The Morning Bulletin under the heading Whats Next dated 21 August 2010.

Australia performed better than the rest of the world through the GFC. The European crisis never got to crisis point. Our local economy seems soft, although car dealers tell me that business is actually quite good. CQ’s economy appears to be very interest rate sensitive, and the rural sector is finding life difficult as banks run tighter lending criteria and restrict access to working capital for seed and restocking. Looking forward, interest rates are unlikely to increase at a rapid rate.

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Church Change and Climate Change

This article was first published in The Morning Bulletin under the heading electricity generation on 19 December 2009.

As an intermittent churchgoer and a constant thinker, considering the motives of other attendees is interesting. Do they fall into one of two categories? Those who believe and try to practise the principles of Christianity (or its alternatives), or those seeking gain (insurance against damnation for example). Or are there more? Could the debate regarding climate change be considered against similar parameters?

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All Ordinaries Valuations

This article was first published in The Morning Bulletin under the heading 'Valuations' on the 23 of September 2009.

The point is that the overuse of “return on equity” as a performance yardstick, and the slavish belief that markets at all times value things appropriately, caused overuse of debt and declining asset values, at a time when the economy could least withstand it.

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What is good for one may not be good for everyone

This article was originally published as ‘What is good for one may not be good for everyone’ in The Morning Bulletin on 11th October 2008.

One of the least understood aspects of economics is the fallacy of composition. Imagine you’re at a football match, with Andrew Gaze sitting in front of you. You stand, to get a better view, while blocking those behind. Soon everyone is standing…and no better off. Put simply, what is good for the individual might not be good for the group. Understanding that helps you identify risks, so let’s apply it…

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Getting your head around the CDOs

This article was originally published as 'Getting your head around the CDOs' on p 15 in The Morning Bulletin on 26th Nov 2004.

Collateralised debt obligations (CDO’s) typically offer a relatively high yield, with some type of capital guarantee or superior credit rating. Many investors are attracted by this combination, and recently brokers have been having a field day selling CDO’s.

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It’s different up here

This article was originally published in The Morning Bulletin on 19th July 2001

Your success in investment markets ultimately depends on the quality of the information that you receive and how you act on it. You have to go the extra mile to get quality information when you live away from Sydney or Melbourne – otherwise you might be left behind. Ask plenty of questions to help make sure your advisor is firstly technically equipped to fill this void and, secondly, is competent in applying that knowledge.

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Bull markets make people lazy

This article was originally published as 'Money just a tool, but don't let lazy have its evil way' in The Morning Bulletin on 20th December, 2008. Image sourced from http://www.flickr.com/search/?l=4&w=all&q=fingers+burnt&m=text

Investors being burnt through dodgy corporate practices is nothing new – you can look at every boom and bust over the past 400 years to see that. There is no certain “recipe” for investment, only the business cycle. Uncertainty is actually the reason investors are rewarded, yet month after month, companies and individuals market “certain” outcomes, and consumers fall for it.

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Position your portfolio

This article was originally published as 'Position your portfolio' in The Capricorn Coast Mirror on 21st May, 2008. Image sourced from http://www.flickr.com/search/?q=Australia+money&l=4&page=2

Identifying the current state of the economic cycle can help investors position their portfolios to benefit from macro-economic changes. Based on our assessment of our position in the investment cycle, how should an investor structure their portfolio?

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Current market forces taking away all the fun

This article was originally published as 'Current market forces taking away all the fun' in The Morning Bulletin on 22nd November, 2008.

In the current dreadful financial markets, the distinction between price and value is the reason why most financial professionals do not recommend selling into bad markets. It is also at the core of one of the biggest and most damaging fads espoused by regulators and the setters of accounting standards in recent history – marking the carrying value of assets to the current traded price.

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