Storm

This article was originally published as 'Storm' in http://www.themorningbulletin.com.au/ on 10th August 2013. Image borrowed from www.couriermail.com.au

The dumbing down of education and the reliance on one's own feelings as a reasonable basis for decision making are topics previously addressed in the column.

It seems to me that we have moved from a situation where few were relatively tertiary educated, but educated to a high standard, to one where a shallower style of tertiary education is available to most everyone. And we have moved from a system of highly organised (definitely flawed and perhaps over-bearing) religion as a source of self-reflection to one where daring to question the crowd is deemed heretical. The popular default now is a reliance on feelings and bureaucracy.

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Busy

This article was originally published as 'Busy' in http://www.themorningbulletin.com.au/ on 18/5/2013.

Being busy is good, and if you are a protestant being busier is (apparently) even better. But what is busy–good and what is just wheel-spin?

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Ports

This article was originally published as 'Port' in http://www.themorningbulletin.com.au/ on 24 March 2012.Image borrowed from http://www.queensland-australia.com/gladstone-image-tour.html

If the benefits to the region from mining and LNG construction start to wane, what will drive growth? It won’t be tourism, education or exports, the high $A will see to that, and retail will be hit as the high income tradies and operators drift away. How will you feel when your house price drops by 30 per cent, and your kids can’t find jobs.

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Shopping is not a movie

This article was first published in The Northern Daily Leader under the title 'Shopping is not a movie' on 04 February 2012.

It struck me then that choosing a movie was not unlike investing in the stock market – I had a choice between very different alternatives, just as you do when you select any investment. One of the choices, The Hangover, was clearly high-risk (my wife was not going to be happy when I showed her my selection) but also high-reward (I was going to be much happier watching it than the movie about shopping). Sex in the City however, was the complete opposite – low-risk (my wife was going to be thrilled with my choice) but also low-reward (I would have to try and keep awake for two hours watching Carrie and her friends go shopping and talk about their feelings).

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Fleeting 1st lesson in finance

This article was first published inThe Northern Daily Leader under the heading, 'A kiss from Julia Roberts' on the 26th of November 2011.

Starting early is important not only in education, but also in saving and investing. The earlier you start saving up for something, be it a new car, a nice pair of shoes or your retirement, the more chance you have of reaching your goal. Now we all already know this, so why is it so hard to do? It’s simply a trade-off between immediate and delayed consumption. We all want it now! Having to wait a week, six months or forty years before we get to spend our savings is no good, we want it all now.

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A perfect 10

This article was first published inThe Northern Daily Leader under the heading, 'A perfect 10' published on 24 December 2011.

It’s a shame there isn’t a World Championship of Fainting, as I’m confident I could win gold for Australia. My most recent example, prompted by a stomach complaint, would certainly have come as close to perfection as Nadia Comaneci’s 10 out of 10 on the uneven bars at the 1976 Summer Olympics. It was a fairly spectacular effort, with all the hallmarks of a great faint – sweating, shivering, mumbling and kryptonite-like weakness.

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A boy and his toys

This article was first published inThe Northern Daily Leader under the heading, 'Ken and Barbie won't make you rich'?

It wasn’t until many years later that I finally figured out what I really should have been buying with my fifty pounds – shares in BHP Billiton. If I had the foresight to spend my fifty pounds on BHP shares each year, I would now be sitting on a tidy investment worth just over $23,000. A little deposit perhaps towards the fast red sports car that somebody wants for their fortieth birthday. I guess the toys never change, they just get bigger and more expensive.

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Music 'Embrace the change'

This article was originally published as 'Music Industry is embracing the change like never before' in The Morning Bulletin on 08th October, 2011.

Queensland is known for its resource and tourism industries, but if you were invited to attend conferences on financial planning and music, would you think of Brisbane as a natural location? And would you expect the financial or the musical people to have a better grip on their industry? Which would you think of as the most professional?

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Who's This Jason Guy?

This article was first published inThe Northern Daily Leader under the heading, 'Who's this Jason guy'?

Given my regular message that most investing behaviour is driven by our cognitive and emotional states, it probably wouldn’t surprise you to learn that the same failure to act sooner rather than later is also prevalent in how we manage our investments. Researchers have given it the fancy name of the ‘disposition effect’, but really all it means is that when it comes to share investing we tend to hold on to our losers and sell our winners. It’s not so much the selling of the winners which is a problem (as they say, nobody ever went broke taking a profit), it’s holding on to dud investments for far too long, when they should have been sold immediately when things started to go downhill.

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Jackpot

This article was first published inThe Northern Daily Leader under the heading, 'Hi Mum I've won the lottery' on the 15th of October 2011.

Unfortunately, your real chances of winning the lottery are slim – winning Powerball is a 1 in 55 million long shot. However your odds of having to deal with a windfall of a different sort are quite high – every one of us has money in superannuation and many of us will need to decide what to do with our lifetime savings when we retire. While not quite on the same scale as a lottery win, you may still be required to decide what to do with hundreds of thousands of dollars.

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Shock Loss or Shocking Winners

This article was first published in The Northern Daily Leader under the title 'Take That' on 06 August 2011.

Psychologists found that most of us suffer from ‘confirmation bias’, which means that we tend to favour information that confirms our views, regardless of whether the information is true or not. Another discovery is the ‘house-money’ effect, which found that people tend to gamble more recklessly with money from a windfall (such as a profitable investment or a winning scratchie). It’s no surprise why casinos are happy to give you free chips when you join their loyalty club.

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Don't feel compelled to do things that make you uncomfortable

This article was first published in The Northern Daily Leader under the title 'Hello Brian' on 23 July 2011.

The ‘Do Not Call Register’ is a great idea – apparently signing up to the register means you won’t be troubled by pesky telemarketers, who have a knack for knowing when you have just sat down for dinner. Last week, while my wife and I were preoccupied with convincing our six month old son Jack, that liquidised pumpkin is a tasty food source, we were interrupted by a telephone call from ‘Brian’. In hindsight we should have just ignored the call, but we had been expecting a call from a family member.

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What Happens Next

This article was first published in The Morning Bulletin under the heading Whats Next dated 21 August 2010.

Australia performed better than the rest of the world through the GFC. The European crisis never got to crisis point. Our local economy seems soft, although car dealers tell me that business is actually quite good. CQ’s economy appears to be very interest rate sensitive, and the rural sector is finding life difficult as banks run tighter lending criteria and restrict access to working capital for seed and restocking. Looking forward, interest rates are unlikely to increase at a rapid rate.

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A degree of economics

This article was first published in [The Morning Bulletin] dated 7 November 2009.

Over the last 30 years, policy changes including superannuation, the deregulation of banking, labour force changes and the floating of the $A, have exposed all of us to markets. Government policy needs to be adjusted so that everyone picks up some proper economics, finance and accounting at school. School leavers who want to make a difference should get into it boots and all.

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Governments Running Up Debt - In An Economic Downturn

This Article was published in The Morning Bulletin on Saturday 6th June 2009.

Persistent increases in the price of goods and services result in higher interest rates, reduced purchasing power and increased costs for business. Tax bracket creep benefits the Government, but everyone else misses out. How can we avoid a spike in inflation?

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Spending to stimulate the economy - Lesson from the Great Depression

This article was originally published in The Morning Bulletin as "Government acted to replace people's regular spending" on 15th March 2009.

The Australian Government has recently handed $1,000 to pensioners. Soon many taxpayers will be receiving $900. In all, around $42 billion is being spent to help shield the Australian economy from the effects of the global downturn. The package includes funding for school buildings, home insulation and first home owners grants. It has been widely criticised by those who believe that the money is all being spent on plasma TV’s, pokies, and prostitutes.

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How banks work

This article was originally published in The Morning Bulletin as "Dogma debates show the better times returning" on 7th February 2009.

How does a bank work? Say a bank attracts a $1.00 deposit. It might keep $0.10 in reserve and lend out the other $0.90. That $0.90 goes round in the economy and is eventually re-deposited in the banking system. Of that $0.90 the banks keep $0.09 in reserve, and lend out $0.81. If nothing adverse happens, this goes on and on until there is no more to lend.

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Bull markets make people lazy

This article was originally published as 'Money just a tool, but don't let lazy have its evil way' in The Morning Bulletin on 20th December, 2008. Image sourced from http://www.flickr.com/search/?l=4&w=all&q=fingers+burnt&m=text

Investors being burnt through dodgy corporate practices is nothing new – you can look at every boom and bust over the past 400 years to see that. There is no certain “recipe” for investment, only the business cycle. Uncertainty is actually the reason investors are rewarded, yet month after month, companies and individuals market “certain” outcomes, and consumers fall for it.

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